The hottest year this year will still be a bumper

This year will still be a bumper harvest year for the machinery industry. Introduction: the machinery industry has not cooled down in the first half of this year. In the first half of this year, the cooling effect of macro-control and the machinery industry is not as great as expected, and the economic operation is still at a high level. From January to June, the total industrial output value of the whole machinery industry was 1539.338 billion yuan, an increase of 31.24% year-on-year, and the production and sales rate reached 96.7%. Just

in the first half of this year, the cooling effect of macro-control and machinery industry was not as great as expected, and the economic operation was still at a high level. From January to June, the total industrial output value of the whole machinery industry was completed. 1scheffler said: "The previous 539.338 billion yuan, an increase of 31.24% year-on-year, and the production and sales rate reached 96.7%. In terms of the 13 industries within the machinery industry, the growth rate was generally more than 20%. For example, the automotive industry was 24.96%, electrical and electrical appliances 38.23%, construction machinery 27.52%, heavy and mining machinery 47.86%, internal combustion engines 36.679%, and Petrochemical General Motors 32.58%. The growth rate of the output of major machinery products from January to June was: forklift trucks and earth moving machinery increased by more than 40% year-on-year, and mining Mountain equipment accounted for 38.34%, smelting equipment 43.53%, metal rolling equipment 49.01%, and 1.2478 million cars, an increase of 34.25%. The average growth rate of the output of major mechanical products is 20% - 30%, which is also enviable in the world. From January to may, the accumulated profit was 74.3 billion yuan, an increase of 28.38% year-on-year; Taxes paid were 44.446 billion yuan, an increase of 17.99% year-on-year

under the condition of macro-control, the cooling of steel, cement and electrolytic aluminum industries is relatively obvious, while the machinery industry is only two percentage points lower than last year. The reason why the effect of cooling is not so obvious is that since the machinery industry entered a new round of rising channel last year, the orders of the whole industry have increased relatively fast, that is to say, most enterprises currently have orders at a relatively high level in history, which has caused an inertia in economic operation, which can not be suppressed as soon as macro-control policies are issued. Especially for producers with a long production cycle, they don't feel particularly obvious impact at present. It's impossible to finish the original order without two years

the machinery industry is different from coal, electricity and oil. It is very single. Our scope is very wide. The main target industries of macro-control are locally overheated steel, non-ferrous metals and building materials. But there are also things that need to be strengthened in macro-control, such as "agriculture, rural areas and farmers" and electric power. This determines that some of our industries may be restrained by the impact of macro-control, and some may be accelerated, thus stabilizing the fluctuations of the whole industry. In addition, the good development situation of the industry in recent years mainly benefits from market opportunities and structural optimization over the years. This is why it is important to maintain a high level of operation in the first half of the year

the impact of macro-control appears in the second half of the year

according to analysis, the impact of macro-control policies will gradually appear in the second half of the year, and the momentum of industry development will significantly slow down

historically, the fluctuation cycle of the machinery industry is slower than that of the whole national economy. After he emphasized the need to strengthen the research and development of new energy vehicles. The lag period is about half a year. Therefore, there are internal reasons for the high-level operation of the machinery industry in the first half of the year. At the same time, we should make preparations for the gradual decline of economic operation in the second half of the year according to the judgment of lagging behind for half a year. For example, in the second quarter, new orders in some industries began to decrease, which means that next year's production and economic operation may enter a relatively tight state. Moreover, from the perspective of financial situation, we have noticed that the funds occupied by accounts receivable and finished products have increased, which shows that the sales of our products are not as smooth as before. Even though the power generation equipment manufacturing industry, which is developing at a high speed due to the current shortage, is still in short supply at present, such situations also occur, and there are more such situations in other industries. Automobile may be more obvious in this aspect (such as sales and inventory), and the growth rate of production and sales in some industries has fallen relatively fast

from these signs, we can see what the momentum is in the second half of the year. According to the analysis, the growth rate of the whole year will drop significantly compared with last year, but it can still reach more than 20%. And it will maintain a level of about 15% in the future

it is hard to imagine the growth rate of 30% from last year to next year, and it probably won't happen again. We can have a growth rate of about 15% or more next year, which is also satisfactory for the industry. Because from the history of the machinery industry, its growth rate is generally twoorthree percentage points ahead of industry, while industry is twoorthree percentage points ahead of the national economic GDP. According to this level, GDP is 8 and machinery industry is about 15, which is relatively normal

the degree of macro-control on major industries is also different, such as heavy mining machinery and engineering machinery, but from the statistical data, heavy mining machinery has not shown much fluctuation, and the growth rate of heavy mining machinery from January to June is about 40%. However, construction machinery is mass-produced, and it is obvious that there has been a rapid decline. Compared with the same period last year, the decline of shoveling and transportation machinery, compaction machinery and concrete machinery is relatively large, which has changed from the high-speed growth from May to June last year to the sharp decline of this year's growth rate (last year's growth rate was 50% to 60%, this year's growth rate was only 10%). Excavators are mainly controlled by foreign investors, and the sales volume of our loader factory fell significantly in June

the impact of power equipment is relatively small. Power equipment can be said to be an industry that is still developing at a high speed under macro-control

the machine tool, instrument and basic parts industry is between the above two. It does not belong to the industry that has cooled significantly in macro-control, nor to the industry that is still developing at a high speed and vigorously promoting horizontal joint restructuring, and its development is relatively mild

agricultural machinery and food packaging machinery are expected to rise. From January to June, the current price of total output value increased by 19.9%, and the output of large and medium-sized tractors increased by 85.71%, which has not been seen for many years. Large and medium-sized tractors are typical agricultural machinery products. Based on the importance of the whole society and the government to "agriculture, rural areas and farmers", agricultural machinery industry is an industry that will be promising in the future

the total number of cars continued to increase, with an increase of more than 20% over the same period last year, and the total number of cars increased by more than 30%, but the growth trend has slowed down. The production and sales rate of automobiles in June was 77.6%

Where is the development path of the industry

-- in promoting structural adjustment and upgrading, we should pay attention to the cultivation of innovation ability and independent brands. Although the development of the machinery industry is still facing many difficulties and uncertain factors, in the long run, China's machinery industry has objective conditions for sustained growth. Because China is in the middle of mechanization, the machinery industry has broad market demand. In addition, China's machinery industry also has a certain cost advantage compared with its counterparts in the world

the lack of technological innovation ability and the cultivation of independent brands is still a bottleneck in the development of the industry. Without innovation and independent brands, China will never become a world power. China is a big manufacturing country, but we are located at the low end of the value chain of the world's machinery industry, and most of our exports are medium and low-grade products. For this reason, we must cultivate innovation ability and independent brands to make China not only become a large manufacturing country of mechanical industrial products, but also a large manufacturing country of famous brand products as soon as possible. On that day, China's national strength will be really strong and have a solid foundation

--- in the adjustment of product structure, we should pay special attention to the development and production of energy-saving and consumption reducing products. When the whole society pays more and more attention to energy conservation and consumption reduction, and the supply of products exceeds the demand, whoever has more energy conservation and consumption reduction products will have a more market, and the national industrial policy will also put forward such requirements for you

--- in the adjustment of market structure, we should strengthen the development of export markets, and increasing exports is conducive to reducing the import and export deficit. With the domestic market tightening, the outlet of China's machinery products cannot be found only at home. Increasing exports will not only help balance the expanded production capacity in the industry, but also relieve the pressure of enterprises to fight alone in the international market. In the long run, the machinery industry should become an industry with comparative advantages in international trade. This trend should be made a reality through our efforts. We should make strategic choices in this regard as soon as possible, start with medium and low-grade products, and consciously increase efforts to explore the international market

--- in the revitalization of the equipment manufacturing industry, we hope the state will further strengthen its support. At present, the State Council will draft a number of opinions on revitalizing the equipment manufacturing industry. The equipment manufacturing industry is an important industry related to the national economy and national defense security. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, the recent overheating of the economy is due to relatively fast investment. In terms of the machinery industry, the growth value of our fixed assets accounts for 6.6% of GDP, but our fixed asset investment only accounts for 4.6% of the total investment. It can be said that the insufficient investment over the years is an important reason for the backwardness of our country's equipment manufacturing industry