Glass in building materials industry to be recovered cement optimistic about the west at the beginning of the new year, "the plan of the year lies in spring", you will inevitably predict, what is the "year" of building materials industry? On the one hand, the recession of building materials caused by the financial crisis and the downturn of real estate shows no signs of recovery; On the other hand, among the central government's 4trillion yuan investment, the benefits of the building materials industry brought by affordable housing and infrastructure construction cannot be ignored. Where will building materials go in 2009
the scenery of cement in the west is unique.
after the boom peak in the first half of 2008, the boom in the third quarter began to fall significantly. Judging from the operation of the cement industry in 2008, the regional prosperity differentiation is relatively obvious. Due to the macro tightening of the government, the prosperity of the real estate industry fell significantly in the third quarter of last year. Therefore, the cement demand in East and South China markets with a large proportion of real estate investment fell significantly, which led to a sharp decline in the growth rate of national cement production and sales, while the coal price climbed to the peak in recent years in the third quarter of last year, and the corporate profits are facing a more severe test. The cement industry is experiencing a cold winter
however, in contrast, the investment in fixed assets in the western region has remained high driven by infrastructure, with strong demand for cement, rising prices and significantly improved corporate profits. Although the macroeconomic growth rate fell significantly, the cement industry as a whole still maintained a relatively high profit growth and stood out in the cold winter
after entering 2009, driven by the central 4trillion yuan investment plan, the industry prospect of the cement industry has also attracted market attention. From the perspective of the industry, it is becoming a consensus that the industry boom trend in 2009 is expected to show a "low before high"
as for the medium and long-term prosperity trend of the industry, when the downward trend of coal prices has been set, the starting time and implementation intensity of the large-scale infrastructure investment plan launched by the state due to the policy goal of "maintaining growth" will become the main factors determining the medium and long-term prosperity trend of the industry. In addition, the rebound process of the real estate industry, which accounts for 30% of the cement demand, is also an important factor determining the trend of "made in Germany" in the cement industry. The prosperity trend of 7K mud industry in 2009 is expected to show a trend of "low before high"
due to different types of fixed asset investment, the pull on cement demand is also different, so it may be more reasonable to decompose the fixed asset investment and calculate its elasticity coefficient separately. The experiment of infrastructure construction found that the cement demand coefficient driven by 100 million yuan investment is about 1.76, which is larger than the real estate investment of about 1.23. Therefore, with the support of large-scale national infrastructure investment, infrastructure investment will become the main force supporting cement demand in 2009, which will make up for the decline in real estate and industrial investment to a certain extent. The downward trend of cement demand growth rate in 2009 is expected to reverse. It is expected that the growth rate of cement demand from 2008 to 2010 will be 6.8%, 8.2% and 7 respectively. It will be favored by more and more businesses by 4%
some experts believe that the prospects of the cement industry in 2009 are facing both favorable factors and some hidden worries. The new production capacity of the cement industry will enter a new peak period, and the supply pressure of the cement industry in 2009 is still great. Considering the substantial increase in government investment, the cement industry is expected to become one of the few industries that benefited earlier, and the spring of the industry is worth looking forward to
glass industry: waiting for recovery
the future prosperity trend of the glass industry is still not optimistic, and we need to continue to wait and see
the price and cost of the glass industry fell together, and it is difficult to recover in the short term. Three major adverse factors, such as the contraction of domestic real estate, the decline of automobile production and the global financial crisis dragging down export demand, restrain the industry demand. The previous rapid expansion of production capacity has intensified the pressure on Industry Supply and demand. On the whole, the future prosperity trend of the glass industry is still not optimistic
the prosperity of the flat glass industry is still at a low level. As 70% of its demand is in the construction field, the decline of the new construction area of real estate has a great impact on it, while the output growth rate of the automotive industry, which accounts for 20% of the demand, has also declined rapidly. Coupled with the previous sharp expansion of the production capacity of the glass industry, the contradiction between supply and demand of the industry is extremely prominent. It is more likely that the boom will remain low in 2009
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